Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
