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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.