Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
